Changes in daily pollen concentration based on meteorological data and days after seasonal initiation - a case study for Japanese hop

Abstract:

Pollinosis causes various allergy symptoms such as seasonal rhinitis, asthma, and conjunctivitis (Min, 1991). Japanese hop (Humulus japonicus) is a major allergen in southern Gyonggi-do during the fall seasons (Park, 1998). So that it is needed to forecast the concentration of its pollens.
For the germination of Japanese hop, a period of low temperature (<5C) followed by warm (~20C) and humid conditions is needed (Growing and Protecting New Zealand(2010)). The daily concentration of the pollens increases rapidly then decreases a few days afterward. In this study, the changes in daily pollen concentration were analyzed to yield a prediction model.
As a result, a regression model was produced to forecast daily pollen concentration. It can be integrated into the daily pollinosis warning system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and provide more accurate daily risk information.