Physical Factors Influencing Changes in Temperature Distributions

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 9:45 AM
Randall M Dole, NOAA Earth System Research Lab, Boulder, CO, United States
Other physical factors beyond long-term mean warming will determine the character of temperature distributions in a variable and changing climate, with potentially significant implications for estimating changes in the likelihood of extreme events. The importance of these factors varies regionally and seasonally and can have a markedly non-linear behavior. Examples from recent cases are presented to illustrate primary physical mechanisms influencing temperature extremes. Some implications of the results for estimating changes in extremes in future climate include the likely need to consider variables beyond temperature alone and effects of non-local as well as local changes in the mean and variability.