Dramatic increases in likelihoods of extreme seasonal temperatures since 2003.

Abstract:

Severe heatwaves in the last decade like the ones in Russia in 2010, Texas in 2011 and the Australian "angry summer" of 2012-13 were characterised by long duration, large spatial extent and catastrophic impacts. We have updated the analysis that attributed a human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 and now show that the likelihood of such a summer has increased dramatically since then. Such events are set to become the norm in only a few decades underlining the importance of developing our capacity to adapt to such extremes. In order to meet this developing challenge, a new European initiative, EUCLEIA (EUropean CLimate and weather Events : Inerpretation and Attribution) seeks to lay the groundwork for an operational attribution service for Europe. This will provide updated assessments of the extent to which human and natural drivers of climate have contributed to the magnitude or probability of extreme weather and climate events.