Understanding the climate science policy nexus: Lessons from modeling climate impacts to temperature control regimes on Lake Shasta, CA

Abstract:

Investigators in the natural sciences have long been frustrated by the slow diffusion of increasing knowledge about the potential impacts of climate change into policy and decision making about the management of those system most likely to be affected. This presentation uses information based on the case study of a recent project that worked closely with water managers to incorporate stochastic climate conditions into two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (CE-QUAL-W2) in order to examine the downstream impacts of reservoir operations at Shasta Lake in northern California. The inclusion of reservoir operational rules was incorporated into the coupled model in order to better represent the operating conditions under which management decisions are made. Shasta Dam utilizes a unique temperature control device (TCD) that allows water releases from multiple levels of the reservoir in order to control downstream temperatures and meet management guidelines for Chinook salmon. The case study illustrates how three characteristics of a decision system influence the use of climate science: (i) the built structural components of ecosystem service delivery, (ii) institutional rule structures that include regulatory systems, operational rules, and informal decision criteria, (iii) decision systems used to manage competing demands on a natural resource. Additional cases are used to develop a general framework for understanding under what conditions climate science can provide information useful to decision makers.