Adaptive Decision Modeling in Wisconsin River Islands

Abstract:

River islands in Wisconsin are of high ecological significance. Understanding of climate change impacts and appropriate management alternatives in these islands are of great interest to all stakeholders, including the State of Wisconsin and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) who have jurisdiction of these islands in WI. We use historical areal imagery to describe island dynamics and river morphometry, such as changes in island shape and size. Relationships of related changes are explored with concurrent changes in river flow regimes. In an effort to integrate climate change uncertainties into decision making, we demonstrate an application of a multistage adaptive decision making framework to Wisconsin River islands, with a particular emphasis on flood management and planning. The framework is comprised of hydro-climatic ensemble projections generated from CMIP5 climate model outputs and multiple hydrologic models, including statistical and physically based approaches.