Evaluation of a High-Resolution Regional Climate Ensemble

Abstract:

A high-resolution Regional Climate Ensemble is used to investigate the limits of predictability of climate simulations, with a focus on high-impact weather. A diverse set of approaches are being applied to examine the impact of the different physics parameterizations on the simulated climate and high-impact weather statistics and to determine the physics combinations that result in realistic scenarios. In this paper we focus on the ensemble members’ ability to correctly simulate current climate variability in terms of: 1) extreme temperature and precipitation over different regions, and 2) tropical cyclone statistics.

A twenty-four member physics ensemble of climate simulations has been generated using the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Skamarock et al. 2008). The ensemble model has been run over an extended North American domain of approximately 25° S to 70° N and from the African coast to the East Pacific, and at sufficient resolution to capture high-impact weather events.

Skamarock, W., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. Barker, M. G. Duda, X. Huang, and W. Wang, 2008: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR. Boulder, CO.