The Earthquake Prediction Experiment on the Basis of the Jet Stream’s Precursor

Abstract:

Simultaneous analysis of the jet stream maps and EQ data of M > 6.0 have been made. 58 cases of EQ occurred in 2006–2010 were studied. It has been found that interruption or velocity flow lines cross above an epicenter of EQ take place 1-70 days prior to event. The duration was 6-12 hours. The assumption is that jet stream will go up or down near an epicenter. In 45 cases the distance between epicenters and jet stream’s precursor does not exceed 90 km. The forecast during 30 days before the EQ was 66.1 % (Wu and Tikhonov, 2014). This technique has been used to predict the strong EQ and pre-registered on the website (for example, the 23 October 2011, M 7.2 EQ (Turkey); the 20 May 2012, M 6.1 EQ (Italy); the 16 April 2013, M 7.8 EQ (Iran); the 12 November 2013, M 6.6 EQ (Russia); the 03 March 2014, M 6.7 Ryukyu EQ (Japan); the 21 July 2014, M 6.2 Kuril EQ).

We obtain satisfactory accuracy of the epicenter location. As well we define the short alarm period. That's the positive aspects of forecast. However, estimates of magnitude contain a big uncertainty.

Reference

Wu, H.C., Tikhonov, I.N., 2014. Jet streams anomalies as possible short-term precursors of earthquakes with M > 6.0. Research in Geophysics, Special Issue on Earthquake Precursors. Vol. 4. No 1. doi:10.4081/rg.2014.4939.

The precursor of M9.0 Japan EQ on 2011/03/11(fig1).

A. M6.1 Italy EQ (2012/05/20, 44.80 N, 11.19 E, H = 5.1 km)

Prediction: 2012/03/20~2012/04/20 (45.6 N, 10.5 E), M > 5.5(fig2)

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-764800

B. M7.8 Iran EQ (2013/04/16, 28.11 N, 62.05 E, H = 82.0 km)

Prediction: 2013/01/14~2013/02/04 (28.0 N, 61.3 E) M > 6.0(fig3)

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-910919

C. M6.6 Russia EQ (2013/11/12, 54.68 N, 162.29 E, H = 47.2 km).

Prediction: 2013/10/27~2013/11/13 (56.0 N, 162.9 E) M > 5.5

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1053599

D. M6.7 Japan EQ (2014/03/03, 27.41 N, 127.34 E, H = 111.2 km).

Prediction: 2013/12/02 ~2014/01/15 (26.7 N, 128.1 E) M > 6.5(fig4)

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1065299

E. M7.2 Turkey EQ (2011/10/23, 38.69 N, 43.91 E, H = 10km)

Prediction: 2011/05/29~2011/06/26 (37.2 N, 44.7 E) M>5.5.

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-614863

F. M6.2 Kuril Island EQ (2014/07/21, 44.60 N, 148.75 E, H = 70.0 km)

Prediction: 2014/06/01~2014/07/01 (44.9 N 150.0 E) M>6.0

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1139692