Detection of Environmental Trends: What can we control?

Abstract:

Natural variability means that detection of environmental trends often takes a number of years. Weatherhead et al. (1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2012) offer estimates for how long detection might take for ozone, ultraviolet radiation, temperature, trace gases. Some methods of observing the environment are more effective and efficient than others. We can control four aspects of our monitoring approach which have direct impact in how well we can monitor trends. We can control the accuracy which can direclty impact how certain we are in final trend results. We can control how often we take measurements; for some parameters, such as trace gases, weekly, monthly or seasonal measurements are prohibited due to logistics or cost. We can control where we measure--including distributions of networks, or satellite footprint size. Finally, we can control what ancillary measurements are taken to determine the attribution of trends to better identify underlying trends. Decisions on these four aspects of monitoring can have direct impact on both trend detection and interpretation of future trends.