Long-term impacts of air capture technologies on optimal climate strategies under economic uncertainties

Abstract:

Despite widespread attention to the consequences of climate change, tangible and concerted progress toward mitigation of the adverse effects of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions has yet to be coordinated among various national and international agents. The energy objectives set by such initiatives as 'Sustainable Energy for All' partially help slow down the global warming in short term, but the risks posed by GHG emissions would persist for a long time. This fact makes negative emission solutions more appealing as a part of the climate protection efforts.

Here I use integrated assessment modeling to investigate the potential added value of air capture technologies as a complement for more conventional solutions such as carbon capture and storage, and the use of renewables. Thermodynamic limits of air capture technologies are used as a general guideline for the estimation of the performance of air capture technologies. Optimal long-run climate strategies are discussed taking into account the uncertainties in the impact of CO2 concentration on the Global Wealth Product, and possible scenarios that result in an overshoot beyond the 2°C warming limit.