Toward joint inversion of monitoring data with physical models during unrest periods

Abstract:

Since the first volcano observatory was built more than 100 years ago, we have accumulated a wealth of data of all kinds. Such abundance of data is a new exciting challenge because now, we can’t hide behind one kind of measurement, and we need to reconcile multiple datasets. Since beauty lies in simplicity, we will show how simple physical models can explain multiple datasets without involving complex non-linear interactions that could, of-course, explain all the data at the same time, but at what price?

How can we explain the continuous deformation measured at Piton de la Fournaise volcano, while at the same time the seismicity highlights a complex migration of the magma with phases of arrest and phases of migration? We attempt to explain similar behavior observed at other volcanoes.

The apparent discrepancy between geodetic and seismic data will be reconciled using comparison with analogue and numerical models. Those models are performed under constant injection rate of maga. Therefore a real-time joint inversion of different data streams with simple physical models will, in the future, allow us to get quantitative estimation of key physical parameters controlling the magma injection. Knowing the magma injection rate in advance will allow a rapid diagnosis of intrusion versus eruption, and also an estimation of potential explosivity.