Improved Water and Energy Management Utilizing Seasonal to Interannual Hydroclimatic Forecasts

Monday, 15 December 2014
Sankarasubramanian Arumugam, NC State Univ-Civil & Env Engr, Raleigh, NC, United States and Upmanu Lall, Columbia Univ, New York, NY, United States
Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts provide valuable information for improving water and energy management. Given that the climatic attributes over these time periods are typically expressed as probabilistic information, we propose an adaptive water and energy management framework that uses probabilistic inflow forecasts to allocate water for uses with pre-specified reliabilities. To ensure that the system needs are not compromised due to forecast uncertainty, we propose uncertainty reduction using model combination and based on a probabilistic constraint in meeting the target storage. The talk will present findings from recent studies from various basins that include (a) role of multimodel combination in reducing the uncertainty in allocation (b) relevant system characteristics that improve the utility of forecasts, (c) significance of streamflow forecasts in promoting interbasin transfers and (d) scope for developing power demand forecasts utilizing temperature forecasts. Potential for developing seasonal nutrient forecasts using climate forecasts for supporting water quality trading will also be presented. Findings and synthesis from the panel discussion from the recently concluded AGU chapman conference on "Seaonal to Interannual Hydroclimatic Forecasts and Water Management" will also be summarized.