Evaluation of North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Climate Forecasts in China

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 2:40 PM
Qingyun Duan, Feng Ma, Aizhong Ye and Wei Gong, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) system is a newly developed, multi-institutional, multi-model ensemble system for intra-seasonal to interannual global climate prediction. NMME includes in its system ensemble forecasts produced by nine climate models from six research centers. It not only produces near real-time multi-model climate forecasts, but also has a 30-year hindcast database from all models. This talk presents evaluation results of the performance skill of NMME precipitation and temperature forecasts over 17 climatic regions in China. We find that the predictive skill varies seasonally and regionally in China, exhibiting higher values in autumn and spring and lower values in summer. Significant predictive skill is observed in most regions except the Huai River basin and the source areas of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. We also found that the Bayesian multi-model averaging results outperform individual model and simple model averaging results.