The Distribution of Fault Slip Rates and Oblique Slip Patterns in the Greater Los Angeles, CA Region

Abstract:

The Los Angeles basin is host to a complex network of active strike-slip, reverse, and oblique slip faults. Because of the large metropolitan region occupying the basin, even moderately large earthquakes (M6+) pose a significant natural hazard. Since geologic estimates have not fully characterized the distribution of active fault slip rates in the region, we use a mechanical model driven by geodetically-measured shortening rates to calculate the full three-dimensional fault slip rate distributions in the region. The modeled nonplanar fault geometries are relatively well-constrained, and use data from the SCEC community fault model. Area-weighted average fault slip rates predicted by the model match previously measured geologic slip rates in most cases; however, some geologic measurements were made in locations where the slip rate is non-characteristic of the fault (e.g. near a fault tip) and the geologic slip rate estimate disagrees with the model-predicted average slip rate. The largest discrepancy between the model predictions and geologic estimates occurs on the Sierra Madre fault, which has a model-predicted slip rate approximately 2 mm/yr greater than the geologic estimates. An advantage of the model is that it can predict the full three-dimensional mechanically compatible slip distribution along all modeled faults. The fault surface slip distribution maps show complex oblique slip patterns that arise due to the nonplanar geometries and mechanical interactions between intersecting and neighboring faults. For example, the Hollywood fault exhibits a net slip of 0.7 mm/yr at depth which increases to 1.6 mm/yr where it is intersected by the Santa Monica fault in the near-surface. Model results suggest that nearly all faults in the region have an oblique component of slip at depth, so slip rate estimates of only dip or strike-slip may underestimate the total net slip rates and seismic hazards in the region.