African Anthropogenic Combustion Emissions: Estimate of Regional Mortality Attributable to Fine Particle Concentrations in 2030

Abstract:

Fossil fuel (traffic, industries) and biofuel (domestic fires) emissions of gases and particles in Africa are expected to significantly increase in the near future, particularly due to rapid growth of African cities and megacities.

In this study, we will present the most recent developments of African combustion emission inventories, including African specificities. Indeed, a regional fossil fuel and biofuel inventory for gases and particulates described in Liousse et al. (2014) has been developed for Africa at a resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° for the years 2005 and 2030. For 2005, the original database of Junker and Liousse (2008) was used after modification for updated regional fuel consumption and emission factors. Two prospective inventories for 2030 are derived based on Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (POLES) model (Criqui, 2001). The first is a reference scenario (2030ref) with no emission controls and the second is for a "clean" scenario (2030ccc*) including Kyoto policy and African specific emission control. This inventory predicts very large increases of pollutant emissions in 2030 (e.g. contributing to 50% of global anthropogenic organic particles), if no emission regulations are implemented.

These inventories have been introduced in RegCM4 model. In this paper we will focus on aerosol modelled concentrations in 2005, 2030ref and 2030ccc*. Spatial distribution of aerosol concentrations will be presented with a zoom at a few urban and rural sites. Finally mortality rates (respiratory, cardiovascular) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 increase from 2005 to 2030, calculated following Lelieveld et al. (2013), will be shown for each scenarios.

To conclude, this paper will discuss the effectiveness of scenarios to reduce emissions, aerosol concentrations and mortality rates, underlining the need for further measurements scheduled in the frame of the new DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions) program.