Stress Drop and Its Relationship to Radiated Energy, Ground Motion and Uncertainty

Abstract:

Despite the seemingly diverse circumstances under which crustal earthquakes occur, scale-invariant stress drop and apparent stress, the ratio of radiated seismic energy to moment, is observed. The magnitude-independence of these parameters is central to our understanding of both earthquake physics and strong ground motion genesis. Estimates of stress drop and radiated energy, however, display large amounts of scatter potentially masking any secondary trends in the data. We investigate sources of this uncertainty within the framework of constant stress drop and apparent stress. We first re-visit estimates of energy and stress drop from a variety of earthquake observations and methods, for events ranging from magnitude ~2 to ~9. Using an empirical Green’s function (eGf) deconvolution method, which removes the path and site effects, radiated energy and Brune stress drop are estimated for both regional events in the western US and Eastern Honshu, Japan from the HiNet network, as well as teleseismically recorded global great earthquakes [Baltay et al., 2010, 2011, 2014]. In addition to eGf methods, ground-motion based metrics for stress drop are considered, using both KikNet data from Japan [Baltay et al., 2013] and the NGA-West2 data, a very well curated ground-motion database. Both the eGf-based stress drop estimates and those from the NGA-West2 database show a marked decrease in scatter, allowing us to identify deterministic secondary trends in stress drop. We find both an increasing stress drop with depth, as well as a larger stress drop of about 30% on average for mainshock events as compared to on-fault aftershocks. While both of these effects are already included in some ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE), many previous seismological studies have been unable to conclusively uncover these trends because of their considerable scatter. Elucidating these effects in the context of reduced and quantified epistemic uncertainty can help both seismologists and engineers to understand the true aleatory variability of the earthquake source, which may be due to the complex and diverse circumstances under which these earthquake occur and which we are yet unable to model.