Machine Learning on Images: Combining Passive Microwave and Optical Data to Estimate Snow Water Equivalent

Abstract:

We have a problem that may be a specific example of a generic one. The task is to estimate spatiotemporally distributed estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) in snow-dominated mountain environments, including those that lack on-the-ground measurements. Several independent methods exist, but all are problematic.

1. The remotely sensed date of disappearance of snow from each pixel can be combined with a calculation of melt to reconstruct the accumulated SWE for each day back to the last significant snowfall. Comparison with streamflow measurements in mountain ranges where such data are available shows this method to be accurate, but the big disadvantage is that SWE can only be calculated retroactively after snow disappears, and even then only for areas with little accumulation during the melt season.

2. Passive microwave sensors offer real-time global SWE estimates but suffer from several issues, notably signal loss in wet snow or in forests, saturation in deep snow, subpixel variability in the mountains owing to the large (~25 km) pixel size, and SWE overestimation in the presence of large grains such as depth and surface hoar.

3. Throughout the winter and spring, snow-covered area can be measured at sub-km spatial resolution with optical sensors, with accuracy and timeliness improved by interpolating and smoothing across multiple days.

So the question is, how can we establish the relationship between Reconstruction—available only after the snow goes away—and passive microwave and optical data to accurately estimate SWE during the snow season, when the information can help forecast spring runoff? Linear regression provides one answer, but can modern machine learning techniques (used to persuade people to click on web advertisements) adapt to improve forecasts of floods and droughts in areas where more than one billion people depend on snowmelt for their water resources?