Validation of Kp Estimation and Prediction Models

Wednesday, 17 December 2014
James Parker McCollough II, Air Force Research Laboratory Kirtland AFB, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States, Shawn L Young, AFRL, Kirtland Afb, NM, United States and William Frey, Air Force Weather Agency Boulder, 2d Weather Squadron/OL-P, Boulder, CO, United States
Specifi cation and forecast of geomagnetic indices is an important capability for space weather operations. The University Partnering for Operational Support (UPOS) eff ort at the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University (JHU/APL) produced many space weather models, including the Kp Predictor and Kp Estimator. We perform a validation of index forecast products against de finitive indices computed by the Deutches GeoForschungsZentstrum Potsdam (GFZ). We compute continuous predictant skill scores, as well as 2x2 contingency tables and associated scalar quantities for diff erent index thresholds. We also compute a skill score against a nowcast persistence model. We discuss various sources of error for the models and how they may potentially be improved.