Empirical Fragility Analysis of Buildings and Boats Damaged By the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami and Their Practical Application

Monday, 15 December 2014
Anawat Suppasri1, Ingrid Charvet2,3, Natt Leelawat4, Yo Fukutani1,5, Abdul Muhari1, Tsuyoshi Futami6 and Fumihiko Imamura1, (1)International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan, (2)Earthquake and People Interaction Centre, University College London, London, United Kingdom, (3)Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom, (4)Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan, (5)Tokio Marine & Nichido Risk Consulting Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan, (6)Willis Re Japan K.K., Tokyo, Japan
This study focused in turn on detailed data of buildings and boats damage caused by the 2011 tsunami in order to understand its main causes and provide damage probability estimates. Tsunami-induced building damage data was collected from field surveys, and includes inundation depth, building material, number of stories and occupancy type for more than 80,000 buildings. Numerical simulations with high resolution bathymetry and topography data were conducted to obtain characteristic tsunami measures such as flow velocity. These data were analyzed using advanced statistical methods, ordinal regression analysis to create not only empirical 2D tsunami fragility curves, but also 3D tsunami fragility surfaces for the first time. The effect of floating debris was also considered, by using a binary indicator of debris impact based on the proximity of a structure from a debris source (i.e. washed away building). Both the 2D and 3D fragility analyses provided results for each different building damage level, and different topography. While 2D fragility curves provide easily interpretable results relating tsunami flow depth to damage probability for different damage levels, 3D fragility surfaces allow for several influential tsunami parameters to be taken into account thus reduce uncertainty in the probability estimations. More than 20,000 damaged boats were used in the analysis similar to the one carried out on the buildings. Detailed data for each boat comprises information on the damage ratio (paid value over insured value), tonnage, engine type, material type and damage classification. The 2D and 3D fragility analyses were developed using representative tsunami heights for each port obtained from field surveys and flow velocities obtained from the aforementioned simulations. The results are currently being adapted for practical disaster mitigation. They are being integrated with the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis, in order to create offshore and onshore probabilistic hazard maps. Through the GPS and embedded calculation function based on the aforementioned fragility results, these applications can be used in the field for a quick estimation of possible building damage, as well as a decision support system for fishermen (whether or not they should move their boats to the deep sea upon tsunami arrival).