Adjusting Views on Climate Sensitivity for a More Complete Understanding of Its Uncertainty

Abstract:

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has remained uncertain in spite of decades of research, and cloud feedback uncertainty is cited as the largest component of this uncertainty. However, the ECS also depends on the radiative forcing and this has been overlooked as a possible source of uncertainty. This paper illustrates how rapid adjustments to forcing affect the spread of ECS in CMIP5 models. Also, how rapid adjustments can help understand robust aspects of response, including regional precipitation changes.