The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis: Top-Down and Bottom-up Evidence

Abstract:

Two complementary lines of evidence support the early anthropogenic hypothesis.

Top-down evidence comes from comparing Holocene greenhouse-gas trends with those during equivalent intervals of previous interglaciations. The increases in CO₂ and CH₄ during the late Holocene are anomalous compared to the decreasing trends in a stacked average of previous interglaciations, thereby supporting an anthropogenic origin. During interglacial stage 19, the closest Holocene insolation analog, CO₂ fell to 245 ppm by the time equivalent to the present, in contrast to the observed pre-industrial rise to 280-285 ppm. The 245-ppm level measured in stage 19 falls at the top of the natural range predicted by the original anthropogenic hypothesis of Ruddiman (2003).

 Bottom-up evidence comes from a growing list of archeological and other compilations showing major early anthropogenic transformations of Earth’s surface. Key examples include: efforts by Dorian Fuller and colleagues mapping the spread of irrigated rice agriculture across southern Asia and its effects on CH₄ emissions prior to the industrial era; an additional effort by Fuller showing the spread of methane-emitting domesticated livestock across Asia and Africa (coincident with the spread of fertile crescent livestock across Europe); historical compilations by Jed Kaplan and colleagues documenting very high early per-capita forest clearance in Europe, thus underpinning simulations of extensive pre-industrial clearance and large CO₂ emissions; and wide-ranging studies by Erle Ellis and colleagues of early anthropogenic land transformations in China and elsewhere.