How can research on anthropogenic greenhouse gas flux quantification be better aligned with US climate change policy needs?

Abstract:

Scientific research on quantification of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions at national and sub-national scales within the US has advanced considerably in the last decade. Large investment has been made in building systems capable of observing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at multiple scales, measuring direct anthropogenic fluxes near sources and modeling the linkages between fluxes and observed concentrations. Much of this research has been focused at improving the “verification” component of “monitoring, reporting, and verification” and indeed, has achieved successes in recent years. However, there are opportunities for ongoing scientific research to contribute critical new information to policymakers. In order to realize this contribution, additional but complementary, research foci must be emphasized. Examples include more focus on anthropogenic emission drivers, quantification at scales relevant to human decision-making, and exploration of cost versus uncertainty in observing/modeling systems. I will review what I think are the opportunities to better align scientific research with current and emerging US climate change policymaking. I will then explore a few examples of where expansion or alteration of greenhouse gas flux quantification research focus could better align with current and emerging US climate change policymaking such as embodied in the proposed EPA rule aimed at reducing emissions from US power plants, California’s ongoing emissions reduction policymaking and aspirational emission reduction efforts in multiple US cities.