Arctic Amplification and Potential Mid-Latitude Weather Linkages

Abstract:

Increasing temperatures and other changes continued in the Arctic over the last decade, even though the rate of global warming has decreased in part due to a cool Pacific Ocean. Thus Arctic temperatures have increased at least 3 times the rate of mid-latitude temperatures. Credibility for persistent Arctic change comes from multiple indicators which are now available for multiple decades. Further, the spatial pattern of Arctic Amplification differs from patterns of natural variability. The role of the Arctic in the global climate system is based on multiple interacting feedbacks represented by these indicators as a causal basis for Arctic Amplification driven by modest global change. Many of these processes act on a regional basis and their non-linear interactions are not well captured by climate models. For example, future loss of sea ice due to increases in CO2 are demonstrated by these models but the rates of loss appear slow. It is reasonable to suspect that Arctic change which can produce the largest temperature anomalies on the planet and demonstrate recent extremes in the polar vortex could be linked to mid-latitude weather, especially as Arctic change will continue over the next decades. The meteorological community remains skeptical, however, in the sense of “not proven.” Natural variability in chaotic atmospheric flow remains the main dynamic process, and it is difficult to determine whether Arctic forcing of a north-south linkage is emerging from the most recent period of Arctic change since 2007. Nonetheless, such a hypothesis is worthy of investigation, given the need to further understand Arctic dynamic atmospheric processes, and the potential for improving mid-latitude seasonal forecasts base on high-latitude forcing. Several AGU sessions and other forums over the next year (WWRP, IASC,CliC) address this issue, but the topic is not ready for a firm answer. The very level of controversy indicates the state of the science.