Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 10:35 AM
Keith Wiebe1, Hermann Lotze-Campen2, Benjamin Bodirsky2, Aikaterini Kavallari3, Daniel Mason-d'Croz1, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe4, Sherman Robinson1, Ron Sands5, Andrzej Tabeau6, Dirk Willenbockel7, Shahnila Islam1, Hans van Meijl6, Christoph Mueller2 and Richard Robertson1, (1)International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States, (2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (3)Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, (4)Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (5)USDA Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, United States, (6)Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands, (7)University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom
Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.