Trends in Systemic Risks to Food Security

Monday, 15 December 2014: 12:02 PM
James S Gerber1, Deepak K Ray2, Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri3, Graham K MacDonald2 and Paul C West2, (1)University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, United States, (2)University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, United States, (3)INRA Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Avignon, France
Changes in global weather patterns are projected to have important impacts on regional food security. These impacts can be substantial, but how do they compare to other drivers of food supply vulnerability, including decreasing stocks, changing trade patterns, concentration of production, and changing demand patterns? We use multi-year global datasets of yield and area for staple crops to assess relationships between metrics of drought derived from high-resolution gridded weather data and crop yields. We then evaluate how these metrics are changing over time, and compare the resulting change in the likelihood of regional yield reduction events to other systemic factors.