Local and Remote Controls on Forced Sahelian Rainfall

Abstract:

Some models dry the African Sahel in response to uniform SST warming; others wetten it. Myriad local and remote processes determine this behavior, their relative importance and interactions uncertain. We present a conceptual framework for Sahelian rainfall centered on the region's moist stability, in which local processes dictate near-surface moist static energy (MSE) and remote convection controls MSE aloft via the weak temperature gradient dynamical constraint. A remote region's influence depends on that region's (1) convection characteristics relative to Sahelian convection and (2) proximity to the Sahel. We present tests of this picture from a series of atmospheric general circulation model simulations, discuss its limitations, and speculate on its applicability to other regions.