Policy Shifted the Functional Relations of Coupled Human and Natural Systems on the Mongolian Plateau

Abstract:

Applying the CHN concept, we examine the spatiotemporal changes of livestock (LSKD), socioeconomic conditions, and ecosystem productivity using data at the prefecture level for Inner Mongolia (IM) and Mongolia (MG) over a 30-year study period (1981-2010). There exist clear spatiotemporal changes in all eight socioeconomic and natural variables on the Mongolian Plateau. Substantial differences in LSKD, population (POPD), and economic development were found among the biomes and between IM and MG. We developed a simple structural equation model (SEM) for a comprehensive assessment, which includes three latent variables: LSKD, NPP, and land use and land cover change (LULCC). Treating the Mongolian Plateau as a whole, we found that LSKD, POPD, and NPP are all positively correlated, with a weak correlation found between LSKD and NPP (r=0.12) and a strong correlation found between LSKD and LULCC (r=0.75) and NPP and LULCC (r=0.75). POPD showed significant positive effects on LSKD, while NPP had an insignificant or weak negative effect. EVI and precipitation (P) had significant, positive relationships with NPP, but albedo had a significantly negative effect. In addition, precipitation affected EVI positively and albedo negatively. The directions and strengths of the above relationships were not always consistent for IM and MG as independent systems. The addition of policy shifts to our SEM significantly changed the strengths of the above relationships in both IM and MG. The WTO for China and the collapse of the former Soviet Union for MG were two shifts included in our policy-inclusion SEMs. For both IM and MG, policy weakened the relationship between LSKD and LULCC, but strengthened the connections of LSKD~NPP and LULCC~NPP.