Opportunities for increasing confidence in projections of future changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the next US National Climate Assessment

Abstract:

Projections of future changes in extreme temperature and precipitation from global climate models are prominently featured in the 3^rd US National Climate Assessment. The appropriate level of confidence in the details of these particular projections will be discussed. Limitation in this confidence comes from several sources, including but not restricted to, the relative coarseness of the underlying computational grids that models are built upon. Recent advances in high computing technologies are enabling several groups to perform multi-decadal integrations of global high-resolution atmospheric models that significantly better represent severe storms including hurricanes. Factors influencing projection confidence resulting from statistical uncertainties will also be discussed and suggestions for quantifying them presented.