Ensemble Space Weather Forecasting with the SWMF

Friday, 19 December 2014
Richard A Frazin1, Bart van der Holst1, Ward Manchester1, Igor Sokolov1, Zhenguang Huang2 and Tamas I Gombosi3, (1)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)University of Michigan-AOSS, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (3)Univ of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
An accurate, physics-based model of the heliosphere that extends from the Sun to the Earth and beyond is the ``holy grail’’ of space weather forecasting. Global models that start in the corona (or below) are driven by representations of the full-Sun photospheric magnetic field. Traditionally, the full-Sun magnetic field has been provided by synoptic magnetograms, which are created over a 28 day period and are not an accurate representation of the magnetic field at any given time. Recently, several groups have been producing so-called ``synchronic maps,’’ which fuse magnetograms and models including differential rotation, meridional transport and diffusion to create time-dependent full-Sun magnetic field maps. Here, we include a variety of synchronic and synoptic maps to create an ensemble space weather model and report on the results.