A Dramatic Regime Shift in Rainfall Predictability Related to the Ningaloo Niño/Niña in the Late 1990s

Friday, 19 December 2014: 2:25 PM
Takeshi Doi, Swadhin K Behera and Toshio Yamagata, JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan
The global warming and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) started influencing the coastal ocean off Western Australia, leading to a dramatic change in the regional climate predictability. The warmed ocean started driving rainfall regionally there after the late 1990s. Because of this, rainfall predictability off Western Australia on a seasonal time scale was drastically enhanced in the late 1990s; it is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after the late 1990s. The high prediction skill of the rainfall in recent decades encourages development of an early warning system of Ningaloo Niño/Niña events to mitigate possible societal as well as agricultural impacts in the granary.