A Recurrence-Based Technique for Detecting Genuine Extremes in Instrumental Temperature Records

Friday, 19 December 2014
Davide Faranda1, Sandro Vaienti2 and Pascal Yiou1, (1)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, (2)Aix Marseille University, Marseille Cedex 03, France
We analyze several instrumental records of temperatures at different locations by using new techniques originally developed for the analysis of extreme values of dynamical systems. We show that they have the same recurrence time statistics as a chaotic dynamical system perturbed with dynamical noise and by instrument errors. The technique provides a criterion to discriminate whether the recurrence of a certain temperature belongs to the normal variability or can be considered as a genuine extreme event with respect to a specific timescale fixed as parameter. The method gives a self-consistent estimation of the convergence of the statistics of recurrences toward the theoretical extreme value laws.