Mapping Large-Scale Mechanized Agriculture Across the Brazilian Cerrado Between 2001-2013

Abstract:

Brazil is a global commodities powerhouse. Over the last decade, dynamic changes in agricultural development and land transformations occurred within Brazil’s tropical savanna region, the cerrado. This interdisciplinary study uses remote sensing tools to map land cover across more than 3.6 million km² of cerrado and statistical methods to characterize drivers of this land-cover change. We use the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index 16-day data product and a decision-tree algorithm, proven highly accurate in Mato Grosso (Spera et al. 2014) and here modified for the broader cerrado region, to characterize crop type, cropping frequency, expansion, and abandonment of large-scale mechanized agriculture during the 2001-2013 period. The algorithm exploits phenological differences between forest, pasture and cerrado, and mechanized agriculture. It is parameterized to distinguish between crop rotations in Mato Grosso, Goias, and the new agricultural frontier spanning Maranhao, Tocantins, Piaui, and Bahia (MaToPiBa). Training and validation data were collected using Google’s Earth Engine. We map single-cropped soy, corn, and cotton; double-cropped soy/corn and soy/cotton rotations; and irrigated agriculture across these six Brazilian cerrado states. We find that while double cropping dominates in Mato Grosso and Goias, single cropping is still the dominant form of mechanized agriculture in the burgeoning MaToPiBa region. In western Bahia alone, preliminary results show agriculture has expanded by almost 350,000 ha and double cropping has increased by almost 40,000 ha. With MaToPiBa touted as Brazil’s latest and last agricultural frontier, we predict that the region will experience a transition similar to that of Mato Grosso during the 2000s—an expansion and intensification of agriculture—which may beget unprecedented ramifications on regional climate processes that can then affect ecosystem health and the economic feasibility of cultivating rain-fed export crops.