Difference Between Present and Future of Spatial and Seasonal Carbon Budget Control Factor in Eastern Asia

Abstract:

IPCC reported that warming over the 21st century in Eastern Asia was grater than the global mean and precipitation seasonal variability likely intensified along with extent of warming. Flux tower measurements showed that photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration in the region were easily influenced by air temperature and/or precipitation generally than in the other regions. Therefore, the future energy and water condition probably alter the present relationship between vegetation and soil activities and meteorological phenomena. However, there are few quantitative analysis which demonstrates terrestrial ecosystem response to future climate change in Eastern Asia. For this research, we estimated present (2001 - 2010) and future (2091 - 2100) seasonal NEP control factor with 10km-grid in Eastern Asia. We created future 10km-grid climate data by combining present satellite and climate datasets with CMIP5 GCM outputs and vegetation data by using empirical method considering extension of growing length. The terrestrial biosphere model BEAMS was used for NEP control factor analysis. As a result, difference of primary NEP control factor between present and future was characteristic by seasons. In spring and autumn, temperature precedence area in the high latitudes decreased in future. While in summer, most of the area showed radiation precedence except water precedence in arid area in both periods, but radiation contribution for NEP in the middle latitudes decreased. We found that primary NEP control factor changed by terrestrial sensitivity to climate change and a capacity of climate to drive carbon cycle. Future warming mitigated the photosynthetic activity restriction which caused by cold stress. Terrestrial carbon cycle demand for radiation in summer might be approaching satisfaction in future. Our simulation provided quantitative evidence that unique climate feedback via terrestrial ecosystem activity will behave variedly in each region and season.