Rupture Directivity Effect on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps in the Marmara Region, Turkey

Abstract:

In this study, we attempt to incorporate the rupture directivity effects into seismic hazard analysis in the Marmara region, Turkey. We introduce information about the fault segments by focusing on the fault rupture characteristics, near source directivity effects and its influence on the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) accounting for the azimuthal variations of the ground motion spatial distribution. An analytical model developed by Spudich and Chiou (2008) is used as a corrective factor that modifies four ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs) (Abrahamson & Silva 2008; Boore & Atkinson 2008; Campbell & Bozorgnia 2008; Chiou &Youngs 2008) and accounts for rupture related parameters that generally lump together into the term directivity effect. In this paper, we only use the relation calibrated for the Abrahamson & Silva (2008) and Boore & Atkinson (2008).

In order to evaluate the impact of the rupture directivity effects to ground motion hazard in the near source we attempt to calculate the fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard maps (PSHA) of mean Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) having 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on rock site condition. Therefore the PSHMs for the Marmara region is produced incorporating detailed knowledge of active faulting and tectonic rates in earthquake recurrence models using the available database and the most innovative approaches.

In order to test the impact of the corrective factor on seismic hazard we first considered its effect on a normal fault and on a strike slip fault as a function of magnitude. Seismic hazard is given in terms of Spectral Acceleration (SA) at seven different periods. We also report the percentage ratio between the seismic hazards computed with the directivity model and without it, over the seismic hazard resulting from the standard practice.

Finally, we improve the seismic hazard maps in the near fault source incorporating the directivity effects in the ground motion prediction in the Marmara Region. The correction is applied to compute spectral accelerations at 2 sec, 3 sec and 5 sec. At 5 sec the increment in seismic hazard estimation is up to 50% and is achieved along the entire system of faults. At 2 sec the effectiveness of the corrective factor is lower (up to 30%). The areas affected by the modifications are approximately the same.