Incorporating Climate Change Predictions into Watershed Restoration and Protection Strategies (WRAPS) in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Abstract:

Development of the Watershed Restoration and Protection Strategies (WRAPS) for the Pine and Leech Lake River Watersheds is underway in Minnesota. Project partners participating in this effort include the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA), Crow Wing Soil and Water Conservation District (SWCD), Cass County, and other local partners. These watersheds are located in the Northern Lakes and Forest ecoregion of Minnesota and drain to the Upper Mississippi River. To support the Pine and Leech Lake River WRAPS, watershed-scale hydrologic and water-quality models were developed with Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF). The HSPF model applications simulate hydrology (discharge, stage), as well as a number of water quality constituents (sediment, temperature, organic and inorganic nitrogen, total ammonia, organic and inorganic phosphorus, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand, and algae) continuously for the period 1995-2009 and provide predictions at points of interest within the watersheds, such as observation gages, management boundaries, compliance points, and impaired water body endpoints. The model applications were used to evaluate phosphorus loads to surface waters under resource management scenarios, which were based on water quality threats that were identified at stakeholder meetings. Simulations of land use changes including conversion of forests to agriculture, shoreline development, and full build-out of cities show a watershed-wide phosphorus increases of up to 80%. The retention of 1.1 inches of runoff from impervious surfaces was not enough to mitigate the projected phosphorus load increases. Changes in precipitation projected by climate change models led to a 20% increase in annual watershed phosphorus loads. The scenario results will inform the implementation strategies selected for the WRAPS.