Earthquake Rupture Forecast of M>= 6 for the Corinth Rift System

Monday, 15 December 2014
Oona Scotti1, Aurelien Boiselet1,2, Helene Lyon-Caen2, Paola Albini3, Pascal Bernard4, Pierre Briole2, Mary Ford5, Sophie Lambotte6, Emanuella Matrullo2, Andrea Rovida3 and Claudio Satriano4, (1)IRSN Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay Aux Roses Cedex, France, (2)Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris, Laboratoire de geologie, CNRS, Paris, France, (3)Ist Naz Geofisica Vulcanologia, Milano, Italy, (4)Institut de Physique du Globe, Paris, France, (5)CRPG Centre de Recherches Pétrographiques et Géochimiques, Vandoeuvre-Les-Nancy, France, (6)Institut de Physique du Globe Strasbourg, CNRS, Strasbourg Cedex, France
Fourteen years of multidisciplinary observations and data collection in the Western Corinth Rift (WCR) near-fault observatory have been recently synthesized (Boiselet, Ph.D. 2014) for the purpose of providing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERF) of M>=6 in WCR. The main contribution of this work consisted in paving the road towards the development of a “community-based” fault model reflecting the level of knowledge gathered thus far by the WCR working group. The most relevant available data used for this exercise are: - onshore/offshore fault traces, based on geological and high-resolution seismics, revealing a complex network of E-W striking, ~10 km long fault segments; microseismicity recorded by a dense network ( > 60000 events; 1.5<Mw<4.5), delineating steep and low-angle (blind) active fault geometries between 4 and ~10 km depth; GPS velocity vectors, indicating that most of the N-S extension rate (16 mm/y) is limited to the width of the WCR; recent historical seismicity investigations, that have led to important reassessments of magnitudes and locations of M>=5 19th century events and a few paleoseismological investigations, allowing to consider time-dependent ERF. B-value estimates are found to be catalogue-dependent (WCR, homogenized NOA+Thessaloniki, SHARE), which may call for a potential break in scaling relationship. Furthermore, observed discrepancies between seismicity rates assumed for the modeled faults and those expected from GPS deformation rates call for the presence of aseismic deformation. Uncertainty in the ERF resulting from the lack of precise knowledge concerning both, fault geometries and seismic slip rates, is quantified through a logic tree exploration. Median and precentile predictions are then compared to ERF assuming a uniform seismicity rate in the WCR region. The issues raised by this work will be discussed in the light of seismic hazard assessment.