SM41B-06:
Local Geomagnetic Indices and the Prediction of Auroral Power
Thursday, 18 December 2014: 9:15 AM
Patrick T Newell, Johns Hopkins Univ, Laurel, MD, United States and Jesper W Gjerloev, Johns Hopkins University - Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, United States
Abstract:
As the number of magnetometer stations and data processing power increases, just how auroral power relates to geomagnetic observations becomes a quantitatively more tractable question. This paper compares Polar UVI auroral power observations during 1997 with a variety of geomagnetic indices. Local time (LT) versions of the SuperMAG auroral electojet (
SME) are introduced and examined, along with the corresponding upper and lower envelopes (
SMU and
SML). Also, the East-West component,
BE, is investigated. We also consider whether using any of the local indices is actually better at predicting local auroral power than a single global index. Each index is separated into 24 LT indices based on a sliding 3-h MLT window. The ability to predict – or better reconstruct – auroral power varies greatly with LT, peaking at 1900 MLT, where about 75% of the variance (
r2) can be predicted at 1-min cadence. The aurora is fairly predictable from 1700 MLT – 0400 MLT, roughly the region in which substorms occur. Auroral power is poorly predicted from auroral electrojet indices from 0500 MLT – 1500 MLT, with the minima at 1000-1300 MLT. In the region of high predictability, the local variable which works best is
BE, in contrast to long-standing expectations. However using global
SME is better than any local variable. Auroral power is best predicted by combining global
SME with a local index:
BE from 1500-0200 MLT, and either
SMU or
SML from 0300-1400 MLT. In the region of the diffuse aurora, it is better to use a 30 min average than the cotemporaneous 1-min
SME value, while from 1500-0200 MLT the cotemporaneous 1-min
SME works best, suggesting a more direct physical relationship with the auroral circuit. These results suggest a significant role for discrete auroral currents closing locally with Pedersen currents.