IN43B:
Frontiers in Uncertainty Quantification for Geophysical Modeling Posters

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 1:40 PM-6:00 PM
Chairs:  Jasper A Vrugt, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States and Ming Ye, Florida State University, Scientific Computing, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Primary Conveners:  Ming Ye, Florida State University, Scientific Computing, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Co-conveners:  Jasper A Vrugt, UC-Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States and Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
OSPA Liaisons:  Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

3684
 
Model Reduction in Groundwater Modeling
William W-G Yeh, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States
3685
 
Characterizing the Effect of Different Sources of Uncertainty on Surrogates of Groundwater Models
Michael Asher1, Barry F.W. Croke2, Anthony John Jakeman2 and Luk Peeters3, (1)Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (2)Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, (3)CSIRO Land and Water Canberra, Canberra, Australia
3686
 
UQ -- Fast Surrogates Key to New Methodologies in an Operational and Research Volcanic Hazard Forecasting System
Christopher G Hughes1, Elena Ramona Stefanescu2, Abani K Patra2, Marcus I Bursik1, Reza Madankan2, Solene Pouget1, Matt Jones3, Puneet Singla2, Tarunraj Singh2, E Bruce Pitman4, Donald Morton5 and Peter Webley6, (1)SUNY Buffalo, Department of Geology, Buffalo, NY, United States, (2)SUNY Buffalo, Department of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Buffalo, NY, United States, (3)University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States, (4)SUNY Buffalo, Department of Mathematics, Buffalo, NY, United States, (5)Boreal Scientific Computing, LLC, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (6)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States
3687
 
Applying Bayesian Compressed Sensing (BCS) for sensitivity analysis ofclimate model outputs that depend on a high-dimensional input space
Kenny Chowdhary, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, Zhun Guo, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Minghuai Wang, Pacific Northwest National Lab, Richland, WA, United States, Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Bert Debusschere, Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA, United States
3688
 
Uncertainty Quantification and Learning in Geophysical Modeling: How Information is Coded into Dynamical Models
Hoshin Vijai Gupta, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
3689
 
By How Much Can Physics-Based Earthquake Simulations Reduce the Uncertainties in Ground Motion Predictions?
Thomas H Jordan, Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Feng Wang, AIR-Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA, United States
3690
 
How Well Do Earthquake Hazard Maps Work and How Good Do They Have to be?
Edward Brooks, Northwestern University, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, Seth A Stein, Northwestern Univ, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States and Bruce D. Spencer, Northwestern University, Department of Statistics and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, IL, United States
3691
 
New Statistical Approach to the Analysis of Hierarchical Data
Shlomo P Neuman1,2, Alberto Guadagnini2,3 and Monica Riva2,4, (1)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, (2)University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources, Tucson, AZ, United States, (3)Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy, (4)Politecnico Di Milano, Milano, Italy
3692
 
Multilevel Monte Carlo Method with Application to Uncertainty Quantification in Reservoir Simulation
Dan Lu, Guannan Zhang, Clayton Webster and Charlotte N Barbier, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
3693
 
Comparing Absolute Error with Squared Error for Evaluating Empirical Models of Continuous Variables: Compositions, Implications, and Consequences
Jing Gao, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States
3694
 
Probabilistic volcanic ash cloud simulations: Characterizing the uncertainty and moving into the operational environment
Peter Webley1, Abani K Patra2, Marcus I Bursik3, E Bruce Pitman4, Jonathan Dehn1, Tarunraj Singh2, Puneet Singla2, Elena Ramona Stefanescu2, Reza Madankan2, Solene Pouget5, Matt Jones6, Donald Morton7,8 and Christopher G Hughes5, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)SUNY Buffalo, Department of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Buffalo, NY, United States, (3)SUNY Buffalo, Department of Geology, Buffalo, NY, United States, (4)SUNY Buffalo, Department of Mathematics, Buffalo, NY, United States, (5)SUNY Buffalo, Deptartment of Geology, Buffalo, NY, United States, (6)SUNY Buffalo, Center for Computational Research, Buffalo, NY, United States, (7)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (8)Boreal Scientific Computing, LLC, Fairbanks, AK, United States
3695
 
Quantification of Model Uncertainty in Modeling Mechanisms of Soil Microbial Respiration Pulses to Simulate Birch Effect
Ahmed S. Elshall1, Ming Ye2, Guo-Yue Niu3 and Greg Barron-Gafford3, (1)Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (2)Florida State University, Scientific Computing, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (3)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
3696
 
Estimating Model Probabilities using Thermodynamic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Ming Ye1, Peigui Liu2, Peter Beerli1, Dan Lu3 and Mary C Hill4, (1)Florida State University, Scientific Computing, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (2)HeFei University of Technology, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (4)USGS, Boulder, CO, United States
3697
 
Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method
Frank T-C Tsai, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States and Ahmed S. Elshall, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States
 
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