GC31D:
Regional Decadal Prediction and Challenges in Early Warning Systems for Climate Change I

Wednesday, 17 December 2014: 8:00 AM-10:00 AM
Chairs:  Ritesh Gautam, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India and Sebastian Mieruch-Schnuelle, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Primary Conveners:  Sebastian Mieruch-Schnuelle, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Co-conveners:  Ritesh Gautam, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States and Zinta Amanda Zommers, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States
OSPA Liaisons:  Sebastian Mieruch-Schnuelle, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

8:00 AM
GC31D-01
 
Initialized Decadal Climate Predictions of the Observed Early-2000s Hiatus of Global Warming
Gerald A Meehl1, Haiyan Teng1 and Julie Arblaster2, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Bureau of Meteorology, Woodbridge, VIC, Australia
8:15 AM
GC31D-02
 
Regional downscaling of decadal predictions
Hendrik Feldmann, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
8:30 AM
GC31D-03
 
Activities of the Climate Forecast Unit (CFU) on regional decadal prediction
Chloé Prodhomme1, Francisco Doblas-Reyes1, Virginie Guemas1, Danila Volpi1,2, Louis-Philippe Caron1, Melanie Davis1, Martin Menegoz3, Ramiro I Saurral4 and Omar Bellprat1, (1)Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain, (2)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (3)LGGE Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, Saint Martin d'Hères, France, (4)Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CONICET-UBA), UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
8:45 AM
GC31D-04
 
Do seasonal to decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?
Rosemary Eade1, Doug Smith2, Adam A Scaife2, Emily Wallace2, Nick Dunstone2, Leon Hermanson2 and Niall Robinson2, (1)Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, EX1, United Kingdom, (2)Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom
9:00 AM
GC31D-05
 
Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning
Chris C Funk1,2, Pete Peterson3, Shraddhanand Shukla1, Gregory J Husak3, Martin F Landsfeld3, Andrew Hoell3, Diego H Pedreros4, Jason B Roberts5, Franklin R Robertson5, Tsegaye Tadesse6, Benjamin F Zaitchik7, James Rowland8 and James P Verdin9, (1)UC Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (2)USGS, Sioux Falls, SD, United States, (3)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (4)USGS, Baltimore, MD, United States, (5)NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States, (6)University of Nebraska Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States, (7)Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States, (8)U.S. Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, SD, United States, (9)USGS/EROS, Boulder, CO, United States
9:15 AM
GC31D-06
 
The Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Peak Intensity
James P Kossin, NOAA Asheville, Asheville, NC, United States, Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States and Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
9:30 AM
GC31D-07
 
Early Warning Systems at Different Time Scales
Caroline Bain, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
9:45 AM
GC31D-08
 
Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms
Lindsey Harriman, Contractor, USGS EROS, Sioux Falls, SD, United States
 
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