Aftershock Hazard: Forecasting Highly Time- and Space-Dependent Seismicity and Shaking after Large Mainshocks I

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 10:20 AM-12:20 PM
Primary Convener:  Ross S Stein, USGS, Menlo Park, CA, United States
Co-conveners:  Shinji Toda, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan, Warner Marzocchi, INGV, Roma, Italy and Volkan Sevilgen, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

10:20 AM
Recent Experiences in Aftershock Hazard Modelling in New Zealand
Matt Gerstenberger, David A Rhoades, Graeme McVerry, Annemarie Christophersen, Stephen C Bannister, Bill Fry and Sally Potter, GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
10:35 AM
Long Aftershock Sequences within Continents and Implications for Earthquake Hazard Assessment
Seth A Stein, Northwestern Univ, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States and Mian Liu, University of Missouri Columbia, Columbia, MO, United States
10:50 AM
Evidence Against the New Madrid Long-Lived Aftershock Hypothesis
Morgan T Page and Susan Elizabeth Hough, USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States
11:05 AM
What Controls the Duration of Aftershocks, and Why It Matters for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment
Ross S Stein, USGS, Menlo Park, CA, United States and Shinji Toda, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
11:20 AM
Global Catalog Analysis Shows That Dynamic Triggering Or Shadowing Of Remote M≥5.5 Earthquakes Is Rare
Christopher W Johnson1, Roland Burgmann1 and Frederick F Pollitz2, (1)Univ California Berkeley, Seismological Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)USGS, Menlo Park, CA, United States
11:35 AM
A New Hybrid STEP/Coulomb model for Aftershock Forecasting
Sandy Steacy1, Abigail Jimenez1 and Matt Gerstenberger2, (1)University of Ulster, Coleraine, United Kingdom, (2)GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
11:50 AM
Operational earthquake forecasting in California: A prototype system combining UCERF3 and CyberShake
Kevin R Milner, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Thomas H Jordan, Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Edward H Field, USGS, Denver, CO, United States
12:05 PM
Dynamic Aftershock Triggering Correlated with Cyclic Loading in the Slip Direction
Jeanne Hardebeck, USGS , Menlo Park, CA, United States
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