S21D:
Foreshocks and Their Predictive Value: Insights from Recent Observations, Lab Experiments, Numerical Simulations, and Prospective Forecasting Experiments I

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 8:00 AM-10:00 AM
Chairs:  Maximilian J Werner, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Jiancang Zhuang, ISM Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
Primary Conveners:  Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, United Kingdom; Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Co-conveners:  Jiancang Zhuang, ISM Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
OSPA Liaisons:  Maximilian J Werner, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

8:00 AM
 
Scientific Facets of the Search for Foreshocks
Warner Marzocchi, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy
8:15 AM
 
Foreshock Activity during Laboratory Friction Tests using Meter-scale Rock Specimens Inferred from two Apparatuses with Different Stiffness
Hironori Kawakata1,2, Nana Yoshimitsu3, Eiichi Fukuyama2, Futoshi Yamashita2, Kazuo Mizoguchi2,4, Tetsuhiro Togo5 and Issei Doi6, (1)Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu Shiga, Japan, (2)NIED National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, (4)CRIEPI, Abiko, Japan, (5)Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba, Japan, (6)Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
8:30 AM
 
Numerical Investigation of Earthquake Nucleation on a Laboratory-Scale Heterogeneous Fault with Rate-and-State Friction
Natalie Higgins and Nadia Lapusta, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
8:45 AM
 
Foreshocks and Aftershocks of Large-event Clusters in Simulated Catalogs
Jacquelyn J Gilchrist, James H Dieterich and Keith B Richards-Dinger, UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States
9:00 AM
 
Gradual unlocking of a plate boundary controlled the April 2014 M8.1 Iquique, Northern Chile megathrust earthquake
Bernd Schurr1, Sebastian Hainzl1, Jonathan Raoul Bedford1, Andreas Hoechner1, Rongjiang Wang1, Yong Zhang2, Onno Oncken1, Mauro Palo1, Mitja Bartsch1, Marcos Moreno1, Frederik J Tilmann1, Torsten Dahm1, Pia Victor1, Sergio E Barrientos3 and Jean-Pierre Vilotte4, (1)Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, (2)Beijing University, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Beijing, China, (3)University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, (4)Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France
9:15 AM
 
Foreshocks Are Not Predictive of Future Earthquake Size
Morgan T Page1, Karen R Felzer1 and Andrew Jay Michael2, (1)USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)USGS, Menlo Park, CA, United States
9:45 AM
 
Foreshock probabiliites and the B├ąth law under the ETAS model
Jiancang Zhuang, ISM Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
 
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