Is the likelihood of getting a flood increased by higher than usual flows in the previous months?

Alberto Montanari1, Cristina Aguilar2 and Maria J. Polo2, (1)University of Bologna, Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental, and Materials Engineering, Bologna, Italy, (2)University of Granada, Fluvial Dynamics and Hydrology Research Group, Andalusian Institute of Earth System Research, Granada, Spain