H52A:
Advances in Hydrometeorological Extremes Forecasting: Estimation, Integrated Risk Analysis, and Applications II


Session ID#: 11163

Session Description:
Floods and droughts affect millions of people each year and their impact is expected to grow in the coming decades. This session focuses on hydro-meteorological forecasting to support decision-making in flood and drought mitigation and sub-seasonal to seasonal management of water, environmental and energy resources. Progress may come in the form of enhanced understanding of flood/drought vulnerability, improved modeling, supporting datasets, ensemble techniques, and user communication. Research topics of interest include (1) estimation of flood and drought regimes, (2) downscaling and calibration of meteorological forecasts, (3) hydrologic modeling, including parameter estimation, (4) In situ and remotely sensed data assimilation, particularly of snow and streamflow, (5) Uncertainty quantification and forecast verification, (6) Post-processing of streamflow forecasts, (7) Risk analysis of socio-economic and environmental impacts  and decision support systems, (8) forecast communication.  Sponsoring initiatives include HEPEX (http://www.hepex.org) and FloodNet (http://www.nsercfloodnet.ca).
Primary Convener:  Nathalie Voisin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Conveners:  Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Paulin DL Coulibaly, Professor, M. ASCE, Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada and Chandra S Pathak, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrology, Hydraulics and Coastal Community of Practice, Washington DC, DC, United States
Chairs:  Nathalie Voisin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, United States and Paulin DL Coulibaly, Professor, M. ASCE, Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
OSPA Liaison:  Nathalie Voisin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1840 Hydrometeorology [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

National Weather Service (NWS) Implementation of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (65424)
Robert K Hartman, National Weather Service Sacramento, Sacramento, CA, United States, Mark A Fresch, NOAA, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Ernie Wells, NOAA/NWS, Analyze, Forecast and Support Office, Silver Spring, United States
Operational, hyper-resolution hydrologic modeling over the contiguous U.S. using themulti-scale, multi-physics WRF-Hydro Modeling and Data Assimilation System. (Invited) (71406)
David J Gochis1, Brian A. Cosgrove2, Wei Yu3, Edward P Clark2, David N Yates4, Aubrey L Dugger1, James L McCreight1, Linlin Pan5, Yongxin Zhang6, Arezoo Rafieeinasab7, Logan R Karsten1, Donald W Cline8, Kevin Michael Sampson1, Andrew James Newman9, Andrew W Wood1 and Minna Win-Gildenmeister1, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)National Weather Service Silver Spring, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (3)Weather Tech Services, LLC, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (5)National Ctr Atmospheric Res, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (7)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (8)Office of Hydrologic Development, Hydrology Laboratory, NOAA-NWS, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (9)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Examining the Role Played by Meteorological Ensemble Forecasts, Ensemble Kalman Filter Streamflow Assimilation, and Multiple Hydrological Models within a Prediction System Accounting for Three Sources of Uncertainty (Invited) (59801)
Francois Anctil1, Antoine Thiboult1 and Marie-Amelie Boucher2, (1)Laval University, Civil and Water Engineering, Quebec City, QC, Canada, (2)Université de Sherbrooke, Département de génie civil et de génie du bâtiment, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada
Is the likelihood of getting a flood increased by higher than usual flows in the previous months? (65924)
Alberto Montanari1, Cristina Aguilar2 and Maria J. Polo2, (1)University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy, (2)University of Granada, Fluvial Dynamics and Hydrology Research Group, Andalusian Institute of Earth System Research, Granada, Spain
Seasonal Scale Water Deficit Forecasting in East Africa and the Middle East Region Using the NMME Models Forecasts (70033)
Shraddhanand Shukla, University of California Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Center, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, Chris C Funk, University of California Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Center, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, Benjamin F Zaitchik, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States, Bala Narapusetty, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Kristi R Arsenault, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Hydrologic Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Christa D Peters-Lidard, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
How can we best use climate information and hydrologic initial conditions to improve seasonal streamflow forecasts? (70592)
Pablo A. Mendoza, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Eric Rothwell, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, River and Reservoir Operations, Boise, ID, United States, Martyn P Clark, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Levi D Brekke, Bureau of Reclamation, Research and Development, Denver, United States and Jeffrey Richard Arnold, MITRE Corporation Mclean, Climate + Environmental Sciences, Mclean, United States
Entropy-based snow network design for spring peak flow forecasting (61416)
Jongho Keum, McMaster University, Civil Engineering, Hamilton, ON, Canada, Paulin DL Coulibaly, Professor, M. ASCE, Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada and Dominique Tapsoba, Institut de Recherche d'Hydro-Quebec (IREQ), Varennes, QC, Canada

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