Probabilistic versus Deterministic Skill in Predicting the Western North Pacific- East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability with Multi-Model Ensembles

Dejian Yang1, Xiu-Qun Yang1, Qian Xie2, Yaocun Zhang3, Xuejuan Ren3 and Youmin Tang4, (1)Hohai University, College of Oceanography, Nanjing, China, (2)PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, (3)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (4)University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada