A43K:
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather and Climate II


Session ID#: 10961

Session Description:
There is a growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts (2 weeks to a season) that fill the gap between medium-range weather and seasonal forecasts. Sub-seasonal forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development yet operational models are beginning to exhibit some skill based on a number of sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.). This session seeks contributions on all aspects of S2S, with emphasis on relevant phenomena and mechanisms responsible for predictability, design of S2S forecast systems, forecast quality and uncertainty quantification, and approaches to leverage S2S forecasts for applications, especially to mitigate natural hazards. Contributions that exploit the newly established WWRP/WCRP S2S project database are particularly welcome.
Primary Conveners:  Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University of New York, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States
Conveners:  Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States and Duane Edward Waliser, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Chairs:  Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University of New York, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States and Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States
OSPA Liaisons:  Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University of New York, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • AMS: American Meteorological Society -
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, Ben P Kirtman, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States and Jin Huang, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD, United States
Grant Branstator, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Hye Mi Kim, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States, Daehyun Kim, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, Violeta E Toma, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, United States, Jong-Seong Kug, POSTECH Pohang University of Science, Pohang, Korea, Republic of (South) and Peter John Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Sahana A S and Subimal Ghosh, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India
Paul Dirmeyer, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States
Lance F Bosart1, Philippe Pierre Papin1, Alicia Marie Bentley2, Moore Benjamin1 and Andrew Charles Winters1, (1)SUNY Albany, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States, (2)University at Albany State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States
Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Charles Jones, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States