A43K:
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather and Climate II


Session ID#: 10961

Session Description:
There is a growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts (2 weeks to a season) that fill the gap between medium-range weather and seasonal forecasts. Sub-seasonal forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development yet operational models are beginning to exhibit some skill based on a number of sources of sub-seasonal predictability (e.g. sea-ice, soil moisture, MJO, stratosphere-troposphere interactions etc.). This session seeks contributions on all aspects of S2S, with emphasis on relevant phenomena and mechanisms responsible for predictability, design of S2S forecast systems, forecast quality and uncertainty quantification, and approaches to leverage S2S forecasts for applications, especially to mitigate natural hazards. Contributions that exploit the newly established WWRP/WCRP S2S project database are particularly welcome.
Primary Convener:  Andrew William Robertson, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Conveners:  Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States and Duane Edward Waliser, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Chairs:  Andrew William Robertson, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States and Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Andrew William Robertson, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • AMS: American Meteorological Society -
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Development of a Subseasonal North American Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System (Invited) (69742)
Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States, Benjamin P Kirtman, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States and Jin Huang, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD, United States
Long-lasting Midlatitude Response to Short-lived Tropical Heating Events (Invited) (65463)
Grant Branstator, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Characteristics of predictable MJOs (81808)
Hyemi Kim, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States, Daehyun Kim, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States, Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, Violeta E Toma, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, United States, Jong-Seong Kug, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea and Peter John Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States
Evaluation of CFSV2 Forecast Skill for Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-Seasonal Characteristics (60277)
Sahana A S and Subimal Ghosh, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India
The Land Surface as a Source of Predictability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales (Invited) (75347)
Paul Dirmeyer, George Mason University, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, United States
Large-Scale Antecedent Conditions Associated with 2014–2015 Winter Onset over North America and mid-Winter Storminess Along the North Atlantic Coast (48384)
Lance F Bosart1, Philippe Pierre Papin2, Alicia Marie Bentley3, Moore Benjamin2 and Andrew Charles Winters4, (1)University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, United States, (2)SUNY Albany, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States, (3)University at Albany State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States, (4)SUNY Albany, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, United States
Towards a Multi-Model Subseasonal Excessive Heat Outlook System (73036)
Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Potential predictability of heavy precipitation in the contiguous United States and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (62769)
Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, United States

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