A21E:
Toward Reducing Systematic Errors in Weather and Climate Models: Evaluation, Understanding, and Improvement I Posters


Session ID#: 7868

Session Description:
Despite recent advances in both weather and climate models, large errors persist in their simulated weather and climate. Understanding nature and causes of these errors through in-depth analysis and evaluation with observations is a first and critical step to improving models This session invites presentations in the following areas: (1) Global and regional evaluation of weather and climate models such as those used in numerical weather prediction (NWP)  and climate centers and from major model intercomparison projects (e.g., CMIP3/CMIP5); (2) Process studies that utilize single-column models, cloud-resolving models, and NWP techniques in climate models; (3) Diagnostics that utilize both surface and satellite observations; and (4) Observational studies that have a direct bearing on understanding and improving convection, clouds, radiation, precipitation and their interactions in weather and climate models. Errors in mean state or variability (diurnal, seasonal, etc.), in atmosphere or land, in atmosphere-only or coupled model, are all of interest.
Primary Convener:  Shaocheng Xie, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Conveners:  Brian Medeiros, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Juilin Li, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States and Fanglin Yang, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Clarksville, MD, United States
Chairs:  Juilin Li, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Fanglin Yang, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Clarksville, Clarksville, MD, United States and Shaocheng Xie, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Juilin Li, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Index Terms:

3311 Clouds and aerosols [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3336 Numerical approximations and analyses [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3355 Regional modeling [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Stringent Evaluation of CMIP5 Precipitations and Development of Optimal Weighting Methods (62288)
Seo-Yeon Lee, National Center for AgroMeteorology, Seoul, South Korea and Kwang-Yul Kim, Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
Evaluating CMIP5 Models' Representation of Oceanic Drivers of North African Climate (67033)
Michael Notaro1, Fuyao Wang2, Yan Yu2, Jiafu Mao3, Xiaoying Shi4 and Yaxing Wei5, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (4)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (5)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Systematic errors in Monsoon simulation: importance of the equatorial Indian Ocean processes (74400)
H Annamalai1, Bunmei Taguchi2, Julian P McCreary Jr3, Motoki Nagura2 and Toru Miyama2, (1)University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, Honolulu, HI, United States, (2)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (3)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
ARM Data-oriented Diagnostics to Evaluate the Climate Model Simulation of Clouds, Precipitation, and Radiation (67739)
Chengzhu Zhang, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Reproducibility of summertime diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models (72698)
Nagio Hirota, National Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa, Japan; AORI/University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan and Yukari N Takayabu, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Systematic characterization of CMIP5 model spread in simulated tropical Pacific rainfall (81324)
Benjamin R Lintner1, Baird Langenbrunner2, J David Neelin2, Bruce T Anderson3 and Matthew J Niznik4, (1)Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States, (4)Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach (63768)
Jaemo Yang1, Marina Astitha1, Emmanouil N Anagnostou2, Brian Hartman3 and George B Kallos4, (1)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States, (3)Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, United States, (4)University of Athens, Athens, Greece
A Novel, Physics-Based Data Analytics Framework for Reducing Systematic Model Errors (65357)
Wanli Wu1, Yubao Liu2, Francois C Vandenberghe1, Jason C. Knievel2 and Joshua Hacker3, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Jupiter, Boulder, United States
Investigating Statistical Downscaling Methods and Applications for the NCEP/GEFS Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts (70334)
Yan Luo1, Yuejian Zhu1 and Dingchen Hou2, (1)Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, (2)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
Downscaling and probabilistic regional climate projection in Japan using a statistical method (71712)
Noriko N Ishizaki1, Koji Dairaku1 and Genta Ueno2, (1)National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, (2)The Inst of Statistical Math, Tokyo, Japan
Probabilistic Predictions and Downscaling with an Analog Ensemble for Weather, Renewable Energy, Air Quality, and Hurricane Intensity (86596)
Luca Delle Monache, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Clouds and Precipitation Simulated by the US DOE Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) (62045)
Shaocheng Xie1, Wuyin Lin2, Jin-Ho Yoon3, Po-Lun Ma4, Philip J Rasch4, Steven John Ghan4, Kai Zhang4, Yuying Zhang1, Chengzhu Zhang1, Peter Bogenschutz5, Andrew Gettelman5, Vincent E Larson6, Richard B Neale5, Sungsu Park7 and Guang Jun Zhang8, (1)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (2)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States, (7)Seoul National University, Atmospheric Sciences, Seoul, South Korea, (8)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
Application of ARM Cloud Radar Simulator to GCMs: Plan, Issues, and Preliminary Results (63755)
Yuying Zhang1, Shaocheng Xie1, Stephen A Klein1, Roger Marchand2, Wuyin Lin3, Pavlos Kollias4 and Eugene Edmund Clothiaux5, (1)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (2)Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States, (4)Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States, (5)Penn State, University Park, PA, United States
Diagnosing Cloud Biases in Climate Models by Comparing Forecast-Mode Simulations With Satellite Observations (75026)
Christopher R Jones, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, Christopher Stephen Bretherton, Allen Institute for AI, Seattle, United States, Jongil Han, Environmental Modeling Center, IMSG, College Park, MD, United States, Ruiyu Sun, Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States and Ming Zhao, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
Attribution of Multidecadal Climate Trends in Observations and Models (69120)
Sergey Kravtsov, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States, Marcia G Wyatt, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Judith A Curry, Georgia Tech-Earth & Atmos Sci, Atlanta, GA, United States and Anastasios Tsonis, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, United States
Decomposition of Model Forecast Errors: Methodology and Application (74307)
Fanglin Yang, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Clarksville, Clarksville, MD, United States
Evaluation of medium-range weather forecasts about Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) Integrated Model System (KIM) (77306)
Juwon Lee and Kyung-Hee Seol, KIAPS Korea Insititute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
An object-based assessment of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model over the western US (80257)
Janice L Bytheway, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States and Christian Kummerow, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
Evaluation of the Model for Predicition Across Scale (MPAS) global ensemble analyses (80272)
Soyoung Ha, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Evaluating the Impact of the Summit Station, Greenland Radiosonde Program on Science and Forecast Services (82023)
Carlos Javier Martinez, Texas A & M University College Station, College Station, TX, United States, Sandra Starkweather, NOAA Boulder, PSD, Boulder, CO, United States, Christopher Cox, CIRES/NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States, Amy Solomon, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States and Matthew Shupe, CIRES/University of Colorado/NOAA PSL, Boulder, United States
Effects of Climatological Model Biases on the Projection of Tropical Climate Change (82044)
Zhen-Qiang Zhou, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States and Shang-Ping Xie, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States
Modeling efforts to improve the Asian Summer Monsoon representation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere tropical-channel model (82514)
Guillaume Samson1,2, Sebastien Gildas Masson1,3, Fabien Durand4, Pascal Terray1, Sarah Berthet2 and Swen Jullien2,5, (1)LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France, (2)LEGOS-OMP, Toulouse, France, (3)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)LEGOS/IRD, Toulouse, France, (5)IFREMER, Plouzané, France
Quantifying the Effects of Volcanic Aerosols on Lower Tropospheric Temperature (85009)
Francisco Marin Beltran, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States

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