A53C:
Polar Climate and Predictability II Posters


Session ID#: 9029

Session Description:
Accurate polar climate prediction on seasonal to multidecadal timescales could benefit a wide range of stakeholders, from local residents to governmental policy makers. However, few modeling studies have predicted recent changes in the Arctic or Antarctic with fidelity. In this session, we seek studies that identify sources of predictability, evaluate causes of variability, and characterize uncertainty in polar climate prediction using a broad range of approaches. Studies that evaluate relevant observational products and assess model error are necessary for better predictions in the future. In addition, we welcome studies that link polar climate predictability to extrapolar phenomena. This session aims to connect scientists across a wide range of disciplines – those studying land ice, sea ice, ocean, atmosphere, and their coupling – whose research has furthered our understanding of Arctic or Antarctic climates.
Primary Convener:  Hansi Alice Singh, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States
Conveners:  Judy R Twedt, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, Graham Robert Simpkins, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States and Brian E J Rose, University at Albany, Albany, NY, United States
Chairs:  Hansi Alice Singh, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States and Brian E J Rose, University at Albany State University of New York, Department of Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Hansi Alice Singh, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • C - Cryosphere
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

1621 Cryospheric change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1635 Oceans [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3349 Polar meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Analysis of isentropic potential vorticities for the relationship between stratospheric polar vortex and the cooling process in China (59767)
Chunhui Lu, National Climate Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss (63949)
Till J.W. Wagner, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States and Ian Eisenman, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States
Accuracy of short term Sea Ice Drift Forecasts using a coupled Ice-Ocean Model (75027)
Axel J B Schweiger, Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington, Polar Science Center, Seattle, WA, United States and Jinlun Zhang, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Improved Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Projections Using Bias Corrected CMIP5 Simulations (75731)
Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom, Nathanael Melia, University of Reading, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom and Keith Haines, Reading University, Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom
Toward Unanimous Projections for Sea Ice Using CMIP5 Multi-model Simulations (78776)
Shuting Yang1, Jens H Christensen1, Peter P Langen2 and Peter Thejll3, (1)Danish Meteorological Institute, København Ø, Denmark, (2)Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Sciences, iClimate, Roskilde, Denmark, (3)Danish Meteorological Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark
A Regional Model for Seasonal Sea Ice Prediction in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic (79085)
Xiaojun Yuan1, Yifei Li2, Dake Chen3, Quifeng Zhang2, Cuihua Li4, Fuxin Niu2 and Yongming Sun5, (1)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (2)Tianjin Marian Environment Monitoring Center, State Oceanic Administration, Tianjin, China, (3)Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, China, (4)Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY, United States, (5)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Data-driven Analysis and Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice (84851)
Dmitri A Kondrashov, University of California Los Angeles, Atmos. Sci, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Mickael Chekroun, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Michael Ghil, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Xiaojun Yuan, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States and Mingfang Ting, Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, United States
Multi-decadal Variability of Heat Transport in the Arctic (71803)
Stephen Outten and Igor Ezau, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
The Influence of Declining Arctic Sea Ice on Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events (74455)
Ashley Fortin and Eugene Cordero, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, United States
Troposphere-Stratosphere Dynamical Coupling in the Southern High Latitudes and its Linkage to the Amundsen Sea (75713)
Mark England1, Tiffany Shaw1 and Lorenzo M Polvani2, (1)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States
The importance of sea-ice area biases in 21st century multi-model projections of Antarctic net precipitation and temperature and their relative change (79764)
Tom Bracegirdle, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Responses of Antarctic Oscillation to global warming (83825)
Song Feng, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States

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