S21B:
Quantifying Uncertainty in Geophysical Methods: From Source to Structure I Posters


Session ID#: 9117

Session Description:
Analyses of geophysical data can provide vital insight into Earth structure at all depths and scales, but the interpretability of these analyses relies on the characterization of the uncertainty in the results.  The volume of data and, in some cases, the large number of parameters have historically made it difficult to calculate model uncertainties (e.g. covariance). Recent advances in computational power have made it viable to apply probabilistic approaches to many problems.  This session will explore various techniques that quantify how uncertainty in geophysical data and modeling assumptions map into uncertainty in published geophysical models. Main focuses includes providing useful “error bars” for relating geophysical properties to Earth structure.  Submissions are welcome from all areas of Solid Earth Geophysics.
Primary Convener:  Scott Burdick, Wayne State University, Department of Environmental Science and Geology, Detroit, United States
Conveners:  Tolulope M Olugboji, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Thomas Bodin, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Chairs:  Tolulope M Olugboji, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Scott Burdick, Wayne State University, Department of Environmental Science and Geology, Detroit, United States and Thomas Bodin, LGL-TPE, Université Claude Bernard, Lyon1, CNRS, ENS, Villeurbanne, France
OSPA Liaison:  Tolulope M Olugboji, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Index Terms:

3260 Inverse theory [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
3275 Uncertainty quantification [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
7215 Earthquake source observations [SEISMOLOGY]
7270 Tomography [SEISMOLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

The uncertainty of the reflection seismic imaging from analysis of wide-angle post-critical reflections (59586)
Mariusz Majdanski1, Maciej Trzeciak2, Edward Gaczyński1 and Andrzej Maksym3, (1)Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland, (2)Polish Geological Institute, Wrocław, Poland, (3)Polish Oil and Gas Company, Warsaw, Poland
Assessing the Importance of Crustal Corrections for Global Upper Mantle Radial Anisotropy Models With a Bayesian Approach (62946)
Zheng Xing, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Caroline Beghein, University of California Los Angeles, Earth, Space, and Planetary Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Investigating Sources of Uncertainty in Surface Wave Ellipticity Measurements across the USArray (63007)
Julie Marie Schnurr1, Tolulope M Olugboji1 and Vedran Lekic2, (1)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (2)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Geology, College Park, MD, United States
Comparing the Performance of Japan’s Earthquake Hazard Maps to Uniform and Randomized Maps (63835)
Edward Max Brooks, Northwestern University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States and Bruce D. Spencer, Northwestern University, Department of Statistics and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, IL, United States
Feedback of balanced cross sections and gravity modeling: numerical estimation of horizon mislocations. A case study from the Linking Zone (Northeastern, Spain) (73699)
Emilio L Pueyo1, Esther Izquierdo-Llavall2, Conxi Ayala3,4, Belén Oliva-Urcia5, Félix M Rubio6, Adriana Rodríguez-Pintó7, Antonio María Casas7 and Jesús García Crespo6, (1)IGME, Madrid, Spain, (2)Universitat de Barcelona, Departament de Geodinàmica i Geofísica, Barcelona, Spain, (3)IGME-CSIC, Research and Geoscientific Prospective, Madrid, Spain, (4)Geo3Bcn, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain, (5)Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Dpto. de Geología y Geoquímica, Madrid, Spain, (6)IGME-CSIC, Madrid, Spain, (7)University of Zaragoza, Dpto. Ciencias de la Tierra, Zaragoza, Spain
BayesMT: Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional and Teleseismic-P Waveforms with First-motion Data and a Calibrated Prior Distribution of Velocity Models (75698)
Sean Ricardo Ford, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States, Seongryong Kim, Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Andrea Chiang, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Livermore, CA, United States, Hrvoje Tkalčić, Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, ACT, Australia and William R Walter, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
The earthquake history in a fault zone tells us almost nothing about mmax (77664)
Gert Zoeller and Matthias Holschneider, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Probabilistic Hypocenter-Velocity Determination for Moderate Local Earthquakes Using a Sparse Network (59433)
Méric Haugmard1,2, Éric Beucler1,3 and Antoine Mocquet1,2, (1)University of Nantes, Nantes, France, (2)LPGN Laboratoire de Planétologie et Géodynamique de Nantes, Nantes Cedex 03, France, (3)LPGN Laboratoire de Planétologie et Géodynamique de Nantes, Pays de la Loire, Nantes Cedex 03, France
GLASS 2.0: An Operational, Multimodal, Bayesian Earthquake Data Association Engine (65231)
Harley Benz, USGS National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, CO, United States, Caryl Erin Johnson, Introspective Systems LLC, Portland, ME, United States, John Patton, USGS National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, United States, Nicole D McMahon, Colorado State University, Geosciences Department, Fort Collins, CO, United States and Paul S Earle, USGS, Baltimore, United States
A Bayesian approach to modeling 2D gravity data using polygon states (66869)
William James Titus, Sarah Titus and Joshua R. Davis, Carleton College, Northfield, MN, United States
Uncertainty of Green Functions for Waveform-based Earthquake Source Inversions (74969)
Miroslav Hallo, Charles University, Faculty of Math. and Phys., Dept. of Geophysics, Prague, Czech Republic and Frantisek Gallovic, Charles University, Faculty of Math. and Phys., Dept. of Geophysics, Prague, 180, Czech Republic
Source Mechanisms of Earthquakes at the Geysers Geothermal Region Using a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach (76680)
Alexander Burky, Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, Australia; University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, Marija Mustac, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia, Hrvoje Tkalčić, Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, ACT, Australia and Douglas Scott Dreger, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
A Bayesian Approach to Infer Radial and Azimuthal Anisotropy of the Crust and Upper Mantle from Surface-Wave Dispersion Curves (78120)
Matteo Ravenna and Sergei Lebedev, Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, Dublin, Ireland
Characterizing waveform uncertainty due to ambient noise for the Global Seismic Network (81572)
Jonathan Alexander Guandique, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, Scott Burdick, Wayne State University, Department of Environmental Science and Geology, Detroit, United States and Vedran Lekic, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
Path-Dependent Travel Time Prediction Variance and Covariance for a Global Tomographic P- and S-Velocity Model (82633)
James Richard Hipp1, Sanford Ballard1, Michael L Begnaud2, Andre V. Encarnacao1, Christopher J Young1 and W. Scott Phillips2, (1)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (2)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Quantifying Similarity in Seismic Polarizations (83652)
Joshua P Jones1, David W S Eaton2 and Enrico Caffagni2, (1)University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada, (2)University of Calgary, Geoscience, Calgary, AB, Canada

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