Which Solar and Geomagnetic Drivers Control Earth's Upper Atmosphere Thermostat?

Abstract:

Nitric Oxide (NO) is a trace component of Earth’s upper atmosphere that allows Earth’s thermosphere to cool in response to energy input from solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photons and geomagnetic activity. When created and excited, NO molecules provide a natural thermostat via infrared radiative emissions [Kockarts, 1980]. A record of this cooling over the last 13 years has been provided by Mlynczak et al. [2014]. Nitric Oxide emissions in concert with EUV photons, auroral particles, and neutral thermosphere circulation determine if geomagnetic storms will deliver a sudden powerful upheaval of Earth's upper atmosphere or a damped event. In this talk I will review recent findings about the forecastability of solar and magnetospheric control of this important thermospheric trace constituent. In particular, I will discuss the role of pseudo-streamers and helmet streamers in the solar wind, and the possible role of magnetic cloud orientation, in determining the extent of thermospheric NO storm response. Anticipating the thermospheric NO response to geomagnetic storms is a next step in improving satellite drag forecasting.