Quantifying Total Electron Content Forecasts during Ionospheric Storms

Abstract:

We make total electron content (TEC) predictions with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM), in order to explore the feasibility of ionospheric forecasts with the current generation of physics-based models. For a number of representative ionospheric storms, we perform GITM simulations in a forecast mode. The simulations are driven by solar wind conditions at 1 AU from either in-situ observations or predictions by one of the physics-based heliospheric models ENLIL, CORHEL, and SWMF. A TEC metric has been developed to quantify forecasted storm-time TEC disturbances. To evaluate the forecasts, we compare the simulation results with Global Positioning System satellite observations. We introduce methods to deduce the primary factors responsible for the forecasted TEC response. Statistical results are obtained and analyzed for different types of storms.