Development of Scientific Tools at the USGS to Prepare for Ash-Producing Eruptions

Abstract:

The U.S. Geological Survey has undertaken a focused effort over the past several years to develop scientific tools to improve capabilities to forecast, assess, and mitigate the adverse impacts of ash-producing eruptions. To improve forecasting capabilities, USGS scientists developed a Eulerian ash dispersion and deposition model, Ash3D, with output designed for operational use by other agencies. For ashfall hazards, Ash3D output includes forecasts of time of arrival and duration of ashfall, as well as traditional isopach maps. We coordinated with colleagues at the National Weather Service in Alaska to ensure Ash3D output is useable by NWS in its official ashfall advisories, and we are developing methods to generate long-term probabilistic ashfall hazard maps for DOE. For ash-cloud hazards, Ash3D output includes animations of cloud height, mass load, concentration, and arrival times over airports. To improve assessment capabilities, diverse approaches were pursued: a portable Doppler radar was acquired and successfully used to characterize ash plumes during the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano in Alaska; a database system was created to manage ashfall collection and observations, including by the public (‘Is Ash Falling?’ at www.avo.alaska.edu/ashfall/ashreport.php); a display-and-analysis tool was developed that accesses public satellite data from a variety of sensors and platforms (‘Volcview’ at volcview.wr.usgs.gov/). To improve mitigation capabilities, the USGS hosts a website (volcanoes.usgs.gov/ash), developed by the partners of IAVCEI’s International Volcanic Ashfall Impacts Working Group and recently revamped, that provides practical guidance about how to prepare for and recover from ash eruptions, organized by affected sector (buildings, transportation, power supply, health, agriculture, water supply, communications). With these various tools now available, scientists and citizenry are better prepared for ash eruptions.